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Global trends: future conflict

Through 2015, internal conflicts will pose the most frequent threat to stability around the world. Interstate wars, though less frequent, will grow in lethality due to the availability of more destructive technologies. The international community will have to deal with the military, political, and economic dimensions of the rise of China and India and the continued decline of Russia. Many internal conflicts, particularly those arising from communal disputes, will continue to be dangerous, long lasting and difficult to terminate.

  • They frequently will trigger refugee flows, humanitarian emergencies. and other regionally destabilizing dislocations.
  • Internal conflicts will cause spillover into inter-state conflicts as neighboring states move to exploit opportunities for gain or to limit the possibilities of damage to their national interests.
  • Weak states will face internal conflicts, threatening the stability of a globalizing international system.

Internalconflicts growing from state repression, religious and ethnic discontent, increasing migration pressures will occur most frequently in Sub Saharan Africa, the Caucasus and Central Asia, and parts of south andSoutheast Asia, Central America and the Andean region.

The United Nations and several regional organizations will continue to be called upon to manage some internal conflicts because major states — stressed by domestic concerns, risk of failure, lack of political will, or tight resources — will wish to minimize their direct involvement. When, however, some Western governments, international andregional organizations press for outside military intervention in certain internal conflicts, they will be opposed by such states as China, India,Russia and many developing countries that will tend to view interventions as dangerous precedents challenging state sovereignty.



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