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Поиск на нашем сайте Water By 2015 nearly half the world's population — more than 3 billion people — will live in countries that are «water-stressed» — have less than 1,700 cubic meters of water per capita per year — mostly in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and northern China. Water has been a source of contention historically, but no water dispute has been a cause of open interstate conflict; indeed, water shortages often have stimulated cooperative arrangements for sharing the resource. But as countries press against the limits of available water between now and 2015, the possibility of conflict will increase. Nearly one-half of the world's land surface consists of river basins shared by more than one country, and more than 30 nations receive more than one-third of their water from outside their borders.
Water shortages occurring in combination with other sources of tension — such as in the Middle East — will be the most worrisome. Energy The global economy will continue to become more energy efficient through 2015. Traditional industries, as well as transportation, are increasingly efficient in their energy use. Moreover, the most dynamic growth areas in the global economy, especially services are less energy intensive than the economic activities that they replace. Energy production also is becoming more efficient. Global economic growth, along with population increases, will drive a nearly 50 per cent increase in the demand for energy over the next 15 years. Total oil demand will increase from roughly 75 million barrels per day in 2000 to more than 100 million barrels in 2015, an increase almost as large as OPEC's current production. Over the next 15 years, natural gas usage will increase more rapidly than that of any other energy source — by more than 100 per cent — mainly stemming from the tripling of gas consumption in Asia. Asia will drive the expansion in energy demand, replacing North America as the leading energy consumption region and accounting for more than half of the world's total increase in demand.
Nuclear energy use will remain at current levels. Meeting the increase in demand for energy will pose neither a major supply challenge nor lead to substantial price increases. Estimates of the world's total stock of oil have steadily increased as technological progress in extracting oil from remote sources has enabled new discoveries and more efficient production. Recent estimates indicate that 80 per cent of the world's available oil still remains in the ground, as does 95 per cent of the world's natural gas.
Oil-producing countries will continue their attempts to increase prices but are unlikely to achieve stable high prices. Energy prices are likely to become more unstable in the next 15 years, as periodic price rises are followed by price collapses. By 2015, global energy markets will have developed along two patterns. Asia's energy needs will be met either through coal from the region or from oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf, Central Asia, and Russia. Western Europe and the Western Hemisphere will draw on the Atlantic Basin for their energy sources at world prices. Environment Current environmental problems will persist and in many cases grow over the next 15 years. With intensive land use, significant degradation of farming land will continue as will the loss of tropical forests. Given the promising global economic prospects, greenhouse gas emissions will increase substantially. Environmental issues will become major issues in several countries, particularly in the developed world. The consensus on the need to deal with environmental issues will strengthen; however, progress in dealing with them will be uneven. The outlook to 2015 is mixed for such localized environmental problems as high concentrations of ozone and chemicals in the air and the pollution of rivers and lakes by industrial and agricultural wastes.
Over the next 15 years the pressures on the environment as a result of economic growth will decrease as a result of less energy-intensive economic development and technological advances. For example, increases in the utilization of solar and wind power, advances in the efficiency of energy use, and a shift towards less polluting fuels, such as natural gas, will contribute to this trend. Global warming will challenge the international community as indications of a warming climate. Insufficient; nutrition; to be uneven; famine; a natural disaster; a source of contention; to drive; wastes; consumption; greenhouse gas emissions: to meet the needs of smb; pollution; malnourished; constraint; abuse; a shortage; to address smth; to decrease; relief.
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